Hi there! My name is Kidus. I am a PhD candidate in statistics at University of Michigan. I am entering the final year of my graduate career and am actively looking for opportunities that line up with my interests.
My research has focused on building statistical inference methodology for nonlinear, non-Gaussian stochastic processes. My work has valuable applications in ecology, epidemiology, weather forecasting and target tracking. I am being advised by Edward Ionides and Aaron King.
I am always eager to get better at being a disciplined applied statistician. How can I formulate my problems in a way that allows valid statistical analyses? What are and aren’t included in my data? How might some models of the data-generating process help or hurt? How do I present my work to a broad audience? I’ve learned and thought a lot about these questions.
PhD in statistics, 2016-
University of Michigan
MS in statistics, 2018
University of Michigan
BA in applied mathematics, cum laude, 2013
Harvard University
Responsibilities included:
Demonstrated the failure of classical time series models to capture variability in dengue case count data and proceeded to develop a mechanistic model that was fit using the pomp R package
Can the circumstance of a fatal shooting by a police officer be used to predict race? Can it be used to predict whether the officer was wearing a body-camera? My team used machine learning techniques to visualize and answer such policy-affecting questions. Utilized methods including multi-class support vector machine (MSVM), logistic regression and random forest.
Led a team of 5 active members of Michigan Data Science Team student organization to participate in a prediction challenge hosted by Driven Data. Utilized classical ARMA and VAR methods to generate forecasts that placed the team at 18th out of over 2000 submissions.
Statistical inference for high-dimensional partially observed, nonlinear, stochastic processes is a methodological challenge with applications including spatiotemporal analysis of epidemiological and ecological systems. Standard particle filter algorithms, which provide an effective approach for general low-dimensional partially observed Markov processes, suffer from a curse of dimensionality that limits their applicability beyond low-dimensional systems. We show that many independent Monte Carlo calculations, none of which, by itself, attempts to solve the filtering problem, can be combined to give a global filtering solution that theoretically beats the curse of dimensionality under weak coupling conditions. The independent Monte Carlo calculations are called islands, and the corresponding algorithm is called a basic island filter (BIF). Carrying out an operation called adapted simulation on each island results in a variant called an adapted simulation island filter (ASIF). Adapted simulation can be implemented using a Monte Carlo technique called intermediate resampling to give the ASIF-IR algorithm which has improved theoretical and empirical scaling. Our focus is on evaluation of the likelihood function, but our algorithms and theory are also pertinent to latent state estimation. We demonstrate our methodology on coupled population dynamics arising in the epidemiology of infectious disease. In this context, our methods retain the generality of particle filter algorithms while scaling to systems an order of magnitude larger.