Kidus Asfaw

Kidus Asfaw

PhD candidate in statistics

University of Michigan

Biography

Hi there! My name is Kidus. I am a PhD candidate in statistics at University of Michigan. I am entering the final year of my graduate career and am actively looking for opportunities that line up with my interests.

My research has focused on building statistical inference methodology for nonlinear, non-Gaussian stochastic processes. My work has valuable applications in ecology, epidemiology, weather forecasting and target tracking. I am being advised by Edward Ionides and Aaron King.

I am always eager to get better at being a disciplined applied statistician. How can I formulate my problems in a way that allows valid statistical analyses? What are and aren’t included in my data? How might some models of the data-generating process help or hurt? How do I present my work to a broad audience? I’ve learned and thought a lot about these questions.

Interests

  • (Spatiotemporal) inference for partially-observed Markov processes
  • Causal inference
  • Mixed models

Education

  • PhD in statistics, 2016-

    University of Michigan

  • MS in statistics, 2018

    University of Michigan

  • BA in applied mathematics, cum laude, 2013

    Harvard University

Experience

 
 
 
 
 

Co-instructor

Simulation-based inference for epidemiological dynamics

Jul 15, 2020 – Jul 17, 2020
Instructed a group of 58 graduate students and faculty on simulation- and likelihood-based inference for mechanistic models of epidemiological dynamics. All pre-recorded course lectures (due to covid-19) can be found here.
 
 
 
 
 

Data science intern

Google

May 28, 2019 – Aug 18, 2019 California

Responsibilities included:

  • Developed OKRs for a 12-week internship project.
  • Utilized panel data methods to achieve desired estimates.
  • Presented results and recommendations to data quality team at end of internship.
 
 
 
 
 

Graduate student instructor

University of Michigan

Sep 1, 2016 – Present Ann Arbor, MI
  • Coached small groups of about 30 students on calculus-based foundations of statistics (STATS 412) and statistical computing (STATS 306). Will teach grad-level time series analysis course in winter 2021.
  • Received outstanding teaching award from the department of statistics for the 2017-2018 academic year.
 
 
 
 
 

Database application developer

Entegrity LLC

Jul 7, 2013 – May 28, 2016 Arlington, MA
  • Implemented data aggregation software for clients in utlities sector to enable settlement of large volumes of usage data from 2.5 million service points, and streamlined reporting and billing.
  • Built custom Oracle SQL databases with indexing and partitioning for table optimization and analytical functions to create stored procedures and materialized views, allowing clients to handle large data influxes from the installation of interval metering.
  • Developed software through various levels of deployment.

Accomplish­ments

Data challenge winner

Led a winning group of 3 students in the data challenge for data provided by Walter P. Moore (engineering firm)
See certificate

Certificate of completion

Completed three modules: simulation-based inference for epidemiological dynamics (which I would later teach in 2020), contact network epidemiology, pathogen immunity.

Conference poster presenter

I have presented my research in various venues.

Outstanding teaching award for academic year 2017-2018

Nominated by faculty and assessed through course evaluations.
See certificate

Recent Posts

JSM

I will be presenting a speed poster presentation on my research during JSM 2020. See you then!

Projects

Modeling dengue in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Demonstrated the failure of classical time series models to capture variability in dengue case count data and proceeded to develop a mechanistic model that was fit using the pomp R package

Analysis of Washington Post fatal police shootings data

Can the circumstance of a fatal shooting by a police officer be used to predict race? Can it be used to predict whether the officer was wearing a body-camera? My team used machine learning techniques to visualize and answer such policy-affecting questions. Utilized methods including multi-class support vector machine (MSVM), logistic regression and random forest.

UN Millennium Development Goals Prediction Project

Led a team of 5 active members of Michigan Data Science Team student organization to participate in a prediction challenge hosted by Driven Data. Utilized classical ARMA and VAR methods to generate forecasts that placed the team at 18th out of over 2000 submissions.

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Simulation-based inference for epidemiological dynamics

This module introduced statistical inference techniques and computational methods for dynamic models of epidemiological systems.

Recent Publications

Quickly discover relevant content by filtering publications.

Island filters for partially observed spatiotemporal systems

Statistical inference for high-dimensional partially observed, nonlinear, stochastic processes is a methodological challenge with …

Contact

  • 1085 S University Ave, Ann Arbor, MI 48104
  • DM Me